Devastating Indonesian Tsunami

[이주의 이슈: Devastating Indonesian Tsunami]

-김지은 (국제학 전공, 16)

On Friday, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred near the central island of Sulawesi in Indonesia which triggered a tsunami as tall as 20 feet straight to Palu. The results were devastating as death polls continue to rise and have now passed 1,400. Jusuf Kalla, Indonesian Vice-President stated that the final death toll could be in the thousands. According to the Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB), an estimate of 2.4 million people have suffered from this disaster including 61,000 who have lost their homes. Shortly after the tsunami, on Tuesday, a 6.0 magnitude quake have shook the Island of Sumba nearby Bali. In addition, Mount Soputan located in the northern area of the Island of Sulawesi, have erupted on Wednesday but so far evacuations were not required.

There have been major flaws in the Indonesian Tsunami early warning system as the Indonesians in Palu had not received a warning to evacuate the deadly tsunami. The Indonesian system that was completed in 2008 is consisted of buoys, tidal gauges, seismographic sensors, and GPS. However, none of these were able to predict the tsunami’s scale adequately. The quake had occurred too close to the shore which the deep sea sensors were not able to detect the huge waves. The cell phone towers were also already destroyed by the earthquake so the Indonesian people did not receive any alert messages. Moreover, the 22 open water tsunami buoys that were installed were not operational since 2012 due to lack of maintenance and vandalism.

In the past, after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that have killed approximately 168,000 people in Indonesia alone, the national system aimed to protect their citizens from future tsunamis by installing new high-speed warning systems. However, as it has been evidently proved, these systems have not help prevent a disaster similar to the past.

금요일 인도네시아 술라웨시 중부 섬 인근에서 진도 7.5의 지진이 발생해 팔루까지 20피트나 되는 쓰나미가 발생했습니다. 그 결과로 사망률은 계속 상승하고 있으며, 현재 1,400명을 넘어서는 등 그 위력이 파괴적입니다. 인도네시아의 부통령인 Jusuf Kalla는 최종 사망자 수가 수천 명까지 도달 할 수도 있다고 말했습니다. 인도네시아 재난관리위원회에 따르면, 집을 잃은 6만 1천명을 포함해 240만 명의 사람들이 이 재앙으로 영향을 받고 있다고 합니다. 쓰나미가 발생한 직후인 화요일에 진도 6.0의 지진이 발리 인근의 섬바섬에 발생했습니다. 또한 술라웨시 섬의 북쪽 지역에 위치한 소푸탄산이 수요일에 화산 폭발했지만 현재까지 국민을 대피시키지는 않았습니다.

인도네시아의 쓰나미 조기 경보 시스템은 치명적인 쓰나미를 대피하라는 경고를 국민들에게 알리지 못했기 때문에 큰 결함이 있었습니다. 2008년에 완성된 인도네시아 시스템은 부표, 조력 계, 지진 센서, GPS로 구성되어 있습니다. 하지만 이들 중 어느 것도 쓰나미의 규모를 적절하게 예측할 수 없었습니다. 지진은 해안에 너무 가까운 곳에서 발생하여, 심해 센서는 거대한 파도를 감지할 수 없었습니다. 휴대전화 타워도 지진에 의해 이미 파괴되어 인도네시아 사람들은 어떠한 경고 메시지도 받지 못했습니다. 또한, 설치된 22개의 쓰나미 부표들은 유지보수 부족과 공공 시설 파괴로 인해 2012년 이후로 작동하지 않았습니다.

과거에는 인도네시아에서만 약 16만8천 명의 사망자를 낸 2004년 인도양 쓰나미 이후, 국가 시스템은 새로운 고속 경보 시스템을 설치함으로써 미래의 쓰나미로부터 국민들을 보호하기 위한 것을 목표로 했습니다. 그러나, 그것이 명백하게 증명되었듯이, 이러한 시스템들은 과거와 유사한 재난을 예방하는데 도움이 되지 않았습니다.

https://edition.cnn.com/…/indonesia-tsunami-eart…/index.html

What problems can be expected in Indonesia outside the field of health in result to these natural disasters? (ex: field of economic or society…)
How should Indonesia or other nations manage its disasters? What should the state do if such a disaster occurs again?
What should the position be for the international society
(other nations, UN, NGOs, etc) in the case of massive destructive natural disasters. Also in case of natural disasters caused by global warming, does the international society have any responsibility?

The Inter-Korean Summit

[이 주의 이슈 : 남북 정상회담]

-김고흔 (노어과, 17)

South Korean President Moon Jae-in met for a second time with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the border area of Panmunjom on May 26, 2018. This was an iconic moment in international relations — particularly for a country that’s been separated by war for almost 70 years. Speaking to the media Wednesday after a brief signing ceremony, Kim and Moon vowed to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula once and for all, something they first committed to at their April summit. “The world is going to see how this divided nation is going to bring about a new future on its own,” Kim said to applause from those gathered.

Both countries’ defense chiefs also signed a 17-page accord in which the two countries vowed to “cease all hostile acts against each other.” “The era of no war has started,” said Moon, the first South Korean president to visit Pyongyang since 2007. “Today the North and South decided to remove all threats that can cause war from the entire Korean peninsula.” “They have continuously shown their trust towards one another and I hope there will be another summit between the two countries as soon as possible,” Moon said.

Moon and his top advisers have consistently said they want to make inter-Korea meetings a regular part of North-South relations and see them as a helpful step in establishing a permanent peace. “Chairman Kim and I share the history of having held hands like lovers and crossed the Military Demarcation Line together twice,” Moon said during a toast at a banquet Tuesday evening. “The fact that the leaders of Koreas can meet without limit in time or place symbolically demonstrates that a new age of inter-Korean relations has arrived,” he added.
After the Summit, “We have agreed to make the Korean Peninsula a land of peace that is free from nuclear weapons and nuclear threat. The road to our future will not always be smooth and we may face challenges and trials we can’t anticipate. But we aren’t afraid of headwinds because our strength will grow as we overcome each trial based on the strength of our nation.” Kim said. Moon urged unity for all Koreans in a speech he gave Wednesday night to the crowd gathered. “We have lived together for 5,000 years and lived in separation for 70 years. I now propose that we completely eliminate the hostility of the past 70 years and take a big step forward in peace so that we can become one again.”

문재인 대통령은 26일 판문점에서 김정은 노동당 위원장과 두 번째로 만났다. 이 만남은은 국제 관계에서, 특히 거의 70년 동안 전쟁으로 인해 분리된 국가에게 있어서 상징적인 순간이었다. 김 위원장과 문 위원장은 간단한 서명식이 끝난 수요일 언론과의 인터뷰에서 4월 정상회담에서 처음으로 약속한 한반도 평화 정착을 다짐했다. “세계는 이 분단된 나라가 어떻게 스스로 새로운 미래를 만들 것인가를 보게 될 것입니다,” 라고 김위원장은 말했으며, 그는 참석한 사람들로부터 박수갈채를 받았다.

2007년 이후 북한을 방문한 첫 번째 한국 대통령인 문 대통령은 두 나라가 서로에 대한 모든 적대행위를 중단시키겠다고 약속하는 17쪽짜리 협정에 서명했다. 문 대통령은 “오늘 남북한은 한반도 전체의 전쟁을 일으킬 수 있는 모든 위협을 제거하기로 결정했다”고 말하며 “우리는 계속해서 서로를 신뢰하고 있으며 가능한 한 빨리 또 다른 정상회담이 있기를 바란다”고 덧붙였다.

문 대표와 그의 수석 보좌관들은 남북한간 회담을 정기적인 남북 관계의 일부로 만들어 영구적인 평화 정착을 위한 유용한 단계일 수 있음을 강조했다. 문 대통령은 이날 저녁 만찬에서 남한과 북한은 사랑하는 사람들끼리 손을 잡으며 건너고는 했던 군사분계선의 역사를 공유하고 있다. “남북 정상들이 시간과 장소의 제약 없이 만날 수 있다는 사실은 남북 관계의 새로운 시대가 왔다는 것을 상징적으로 보여줍니다.”라고 문위원장이 덧붙여 말했다.
정상회담 이후 “우리는 한반도를 핵무기와 핵 위협이 없는 평화의 땅으로 만들기로 합의했다. 우리의 미래로 가는 길이 항상 순조롭지는 않을 것이고 우리는 우리가 예측할 수 없는 도전과 시련에 직면할 수도 있지만, 우리는 이러한 역경을 두려워하지 않는다.”고 김위원장이 말했다. 문 대표는 이날 밤 관중을 향해 한 연설에서 국민의 단결을 다시 한번 촉구했다. “우리는 오천 년 동안 함께 살았고, 70 년 동안 따로 살았다. 이제 다시 하나가 될 수 있도록 과거 70년간의 적대감을 완전히 없애고 평화롭게 한 발짝 더 나아가길 소망한다”고 재차 강조했다”

Is it necessary to phase out sanctions against North Korea’s denuclearization measures ? Or is it necessary to strictly maintain sanctions by the UN Security Council until the complete denuclearization of North Korea is achieved?
What are the benefits and challenges of the development of inter-Korean relations?
Though declaration of the end of war is a great result of inter Korean summit, a voice of concerns also exists as it was somewhat hastily achieved. What can be worrisome points of the declaration of the end of the war?

https://edition.cnn.com/…/north-korea-south-kore…/index.html

China’s Vaccine Scandal

[이주의 이슈- China’s vaccine scandal]

– 김나현 (영어학과, 18)

China’s vaccine scandal started on July 15, when the government inspectors found that Changchun Changsheng Biotechnology, China’s second-largest maker of rabies vaccines, had forged reports and violated regulations while producing 250,000 doses of rabies vaccines for humans. Within days, Changsheng suspended production of the vaccine and recalled the product from disease-prevention organizations.

On July 20, when reports of Changsheng’s violations emerged, they quickly went viral on Chinese social media. Despite apparent attempts to censor posts about the scandal, a hashtag on the issue had been read more than 600 million times by Monday, Reuters reported.
Pundits and media outlets began describing the incident as the worst public-health scandal in years, and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang released a statement vowing to crack down on lawbreakers. On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping took time during a state tour through Africa to address the situation, calling it “appalling.”

Xi, on a trip to Africa, echoed the calls from Premier Li Keqiang for a thorough investigation and stern action over the latest safety scare to hit the pharmaceutical industry.
“Changchun Changsheng Biotechnology’s illegal production of vaccines is vile in nature and shocking,” Xi said, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

The backlash from Chinese parents is also remarkably fierce. It is somewhat reminiscent of the 2008 milk scandal, during which it was discovered that several food items, including infant formula, had been contaminated with a chemical called melamine. Like the milk scandal, the current vaccine controversy is becoming a much larger discussion about the country’s public-health system, said Xi Chen, an assistant professor of public health at Yale University.

중국의 백신 스캔들은 중국에서 두번째로 큰 광견병 백신 제조 업체인 장춘 창성 바이오 테크놀로지가 약 250,000개의 사람을 위한 광견병 백신을 생산하는 동안 보고서를 위조하고 규정을 위반한 사실을 정부 조사관들이 발견한 7월 15일 시작되었다. 창성 사는 며칠 만에 백신의 생산을 중단하고 질병 예방 기관의 제품을 회수했다.

7월 20일, 창성의 위반 보도는 보도됨과 동시에 중국 소셜 미디어에 재빨리 퍼졌다. 이 사건에 대한 게시물을 검열하려는 명백한 시도에도 불구하고 이 문제에 대한 해시 태그가 월요일까지 6억번 이상 읽힌 것으로 로이터 통신은 발표했다.전문가들과 언론 매체들은 이 사건을 수년 간 최악의 공공 보건 스캔들이라고 묘사하기 시작했고, 중국의 리 케이창 총리는 범법자들을 단속하겠다는 성명을 발표했다. 월요일에는 시진핑(習近平)중국 국가 주석이 이 사건을 ‘끔찍하다’고 표현하며, 22일 아프리카 순방 도중, 이 사건을 다루기 위한 시간을 가졌다.

시 주석은 리커창 총리의 철저한 조사와 최근 제약 업계에 대한 안전 공포에 대한 엄중한 조치를 되풀이했다. 시 주석은 장춘 창성 생명 공학의 불법 백신 생산은 비도덕적이며 충격적이라고 말했다.

중국 부모들의 반발도 만만치 않다. 이러한 부모들의 거센 반발은 영아용 조제 분유를 포함한 여러 식품들이 멜라민이라는 화학 물질로 오염되었다는 사실이 밝혀진 2008년 우유 파문을 상기시킨다. “우유 파문과 마찬가지로 현재의 백신 논란은 중국의 공공 보건 시스템에 대한 훨씬 더 큰 논의거리가 되고 있다” 고 Xi Chen 예일대 공중 보건 조교수가 말했다.

https://www.scmp.com/…/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-promises-…
http://news.chosun.com/…/htm…/2018/07/25/2018072500231.html…
http://medipana.com/news/news_viewer.asp…
http://news1.kr/articles/?3379957

Yemen Refugees in South Korea

[이주의 이슈 – Yemen Refugees in South Korea]

– 조유림 (국제학전공, 16)

Recently there is an ongoing debate due to Yemen refugees in Jeju Island, South Korea. As of over 7 million people participating in a petition that demands stronger law enforcement regarding the refugee law, not only citizens of Jeju Island, but also the majority of South Koreans have negative perspectives upon the acceptance of Yemen refugees. Yemen refugees have first fled to Malaysia which practices the same religion as their nation, Islam. However, as Malaysia have enacted policies that prioritizes their own citizens and the Yemenis could not have made a living with the pay they received, they became to seek refuge in Jeju Island, South Korea as we have a much more tolerant refugee law and foreigners do not need visa for 30 days.

In 1990, the divided Yemen have unified with Saleh as the president. He have held power for 33 years, but in 2011 during the Arab Springs he had been forced out of the government. Afterwards, a civil war occurred to claim power in the government. As a result, there was a division between Sunni and Shia. Initially, the process to take the office seemed like a civil war, but in 2015, as Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen, it became a war between nations. During the civil war, as the Houthi rebels of Shia began to gain power, Sunnis of Saudi Arabia became to intervene in the war. With violence, hunger, diseases (Cholera), and other various reasons, Yemenis were forced to seek refuge in other countries.

As mentioned above, the majority of South Korean citizens are not in favor of accepting Yemen refugees. The opposition mainly points out economic and religious issues. To begin with, the economic issue is due to the high unemployment rate of the youth in South Korea. The process of accepting refugees requires approximately 6 months, which the government has to provide refugees with welfare during that period. Even the Korean citizens are struggling to get a job, but as Yemenis rejected some job offers from the Korean government, it resulted in more opposing people.

The religious issue is linked to security. Yemen is an Islamic nation based on a patriarchal doctrine which does not regard women’s rights. In the case of Germany where they accepted 15 million Muslim refugees, these refugees have performed ‘monstrous’ assaults targeting women in Cologne’s central station in 2016. On January 2014, a Yemen refugee have applied for asylum in South Korea. The same year in July, he was arrested for carrying drugs and conducting sexual harassment, and was sentenced for 1 year in prison.

On the other hand, there are people in Korea who advocates human rights and proposes to accept the Yemen refugees. Korea have adopted the 1951 Refugee Convention in 1992 and was the first Asian nation to enforce the Refugee Act in 2013. Through these actions in the international society, South Korea has the responsibility to embrace refugees fleeing from conflict regions. During the Korean War, Korea had over 60 million refugees who received a multitude of aid around the globe, and currently is a divided nation not free from the refugee crisis ourselves.

Moreover, over several years the number of refugees have rapidly increased, but in reality there were almost no events that lead to the problems people have predicted. It is difficult to find statistics of crime increasing due to refugees. After 2015, although Germany was the nation that have accepted a vast number of refugees, the crimes rates have actually decreased over the years.

The Ministry of Law have announced some measures to answer the protests against accepting Yemen refugees. It is as stated below. First, the process of refugee acceptance will be decreased. Second, there will be a revision of the refugee law in order to prevent refugees who abuse the system for economic benefits. Lastly, the education for adapting in our nation provided for the refugees will be enhanced for the refugees to follow the Korean law, values, and culture.

Even though the Ministry of Law have announced these measures, the people of South Korea are concerned that the matter of security is not included. It seems like there will still be many South Koreans opposing to the acceptance of Yemen refugees. Thus, the Jeju Island citizens and South Korean citizens in total are in need of fundamental solutions for the issue of Yemen Refugees.

최근 제주에는 예멘 난민 수용에 관한 논란이 끊이지 않고 있다. 난민법 강화를 촉구하는 청와대 국민청원에 역대 최다 70만명이 참여한 가운데 제주도민 뿐만 아니라 국민 대다수가 예멘 난민 수용에 대해 부정적인 견해를 보이고 있다는 것을 알 수 있다. 이는 같은 이슬람 국가인 말레이시아로 피난한 난민들이 말레이시아의 자국민 우대 정책과 적은 급료로 생계를 유지하기 힘들어지자, 동아시아 국가 중 가장 개방적인 난민법을 시행하고 있으며 무사증 제도를 통해 손쉽게 체류할 수 있는 제주도로 넘어오게 된 것이다. 무사증 제도란, 비자 없이 30일 간 체류할 수 있는 제도이다.

1990년, 분단 상태였던 예멘이 통일하면서 살레 대통령을 중심으로 한 군부 정권이 들어서게 된다. 그는 33년간 장기 집권을 했지만, 2011년 아랍의 봄이 일어나면서 대통령 자리에서 쫓겨난다. 그 이후 정권을 잡기 위해 내전이 벌어지는데, 이들은 크게 시아파와 수니파로 나뉜다. 이렇듯 처음에 내전의 양상을 띠던 전쟁이, 2015년에 사우디아라비아가 예멘에 폭격을 시작하면서 국제전으로 변화한다. 내전 중 시아파인 후티 반군이 득세하자 수니파인 사우디아라비아가 전쟁에 개입한 것이다. 폭격과 기아, 질병(콜레라) 등 여러가지 문제에 봉착한 예멘 사람들은 세계 곳곳으로 피난을 가게 되었다.

앞서 언급한 바와 같이, 대한민국 국민 대다수는 예멘 난민 수용에 반대하고 있는 입장이다. 난민 수용 반대측은 크게 경제적 이유와 종교적 이유를 거론한다. 우선, 경제적 문제는 역대 최악의 체감 경기와 높은 청년 실업률에 기인한다. 난민 심사까지 약 6개월이 소요되는데, 이때 대한민국 정부가 난민의 생계비와 일자리를 지원해주어야 한다. 국민의 생계마저 불확실한 지금, 예멘 난민들이 정부가 준 일자리를 포기하자 그에 대한 반발은 더욱 거세지고 있다.

종교적 문제는 안보 문제와 직결된다. 예멘은 이슬람 문화권인데, 이는 가부장적 교리를 바탕으로 하기 때문에 기본적으로 여성 인권이 낮다. 실제로 독일에는 무슬림 난민 150만명이 대거 유입하였는데, 이들에 의해 2016년 쾰른 역에서 여성을 대상으로 한 집단 성폭행이 일어난다. 우리나라에서도 2014년 1월 입국해 난민신청을 했다가 그해 7월 ‘불인정 처분’을 받은 예멘인이 환각제 소지 및 여성 추행 혐의로 징역 1년을 선고받은 적이 있다.

한편 찬성측은 난민의 인권을 강조하며 그들을 수용하자는 입장을 보이고 있다. 대한민국은 1992년 유엔난민협약에 가입했으며 2013년에는 아시아 최초로 난민법을 시행하였다. 세계적인 분쟁이 늘어나 난민 발생이 불가피한 국제사회에서 난민 협약에 가입했다는 것은 그들을 보호할 책임을 지닌다는 것을 의미한다. 한국도 6∙25전쟁으로 600만명이 넘는 피란민이 발생했을 때 국제사회의 도움을 받은 적이 있고, 현재도 휴전 중인 국가이기 때문에 난민 문제에서 자유롭지 못하다는 의견이다.

또한 최근 몇 년 사이 전 세계적으로 난민이 급증하고 있지만, 세간의 우려가 현실로 나타난 경우는 거의 없다. 난민 때문에 범죄율이 증가했다는 보고나 통계도 찾아보기 어렵다. 2015년 이후 가장 많은 난민을 수용한 국가 중 하나인 독일은 오히려 범죄율이 감소한 것으로 나타났다.

법무부는 예멘 난민 수용에 대한 들끓는 여론을 잠재우기 위해 제주 예멘 난민 관련 대책을 발표했다. 그 내용은 아래와 같다. 우선, 난민 심사기간을 축소한다. 둘째, 난민법 개정을 추진하여 경제적 목적 등으로 난민제도를 악용하는 사례를 방지할 계획이다. 마지막으로, 난민에게 실시되는 적응 교육을 강화하여 한국의 법질서·가치·문화 등을 준수할 수 있도록 사회 적응교육을 실시한다.
이렇듯 법무부에서는 예멘 난민 관련 대책을 발표했지만, 대중들이 예멘 난민 수용에 따라 가장 두려워하는 치안 관련 대책이 빠져 있어 예멘 난민 수용에 따른 논란은 쉽사리 진정되지 않을 듯하다. 제주도민, 더 나아가 대한민국 국민들과 예멘 난민들 모두에게 도움이 될 수 있도록 이번 예멘 난민 사태에 대한 정부의 근본적인 대책 마련이 시급하다.

https://www.theguardian.com/…/refugees-from-yemen-divides-s…

The Crisis in the Middle East

[이주의 이슈: The Crisis in the Middle East]

-김성호 (국제통상학과, 13)

Today, I’d like to address broadly about the catastrophic circumstances in the middle east rather than a turmoil occurred in an Israel-Palestine relationship. Because I thought it was only an incident culminated from a diabolic history from the past. Therefore, we need to recognise the principal cause of today’s complex situation in the middle east.

As you may all know, the Western countries were eager to conquer the middle east to expand their dominance also known as the Western Imperialism in the Middle East. Imperialism prevailed throughout the world and this region was not an exception to this trend.

Before the invasion of the Western Countries, the Middle East region was under the dominance of Ottoman Empire. The Sultan – King of the Ottoman Empire had the invincible power over the nationals of Ottoman Empire. This was the reason why the Ottomans could have ever-lasting peace even there were cultural, religious, and ethnic differences between other tribes. The Sultan acted like a guardian having a surveillance within the vast territory of the country.

The Western Countries – primarily the United Kingdom and France, however, invaded these areas ruthlessly with the concept of Imperialism. Discrimination was an overwhelming ideology which gave a birth of racism existing until even today. It is undepictable to state the reality of what happened during those days on the consideration that all the incidents were inhumane.

Finally, it was a pivotal time to end the disaster in the Middle East via giving independence to countries. But unfortunately, the Sykes-Picot Agreement came in as a notorious blockade for ever-lasting peace in the middle east. The Sykes-Picot Agreement, officially known as the Asia Minor Agreement, was a secret agreement between the United Kingdom and France, to which the Russian Empire assented. They defined the territory of Syria, Iraq, Israel, and etc. for the sake of their own interests. The United Kingdom was trying to secure natural resources and France was looking for a harbour to make a route to reach the Asian continent. Those Middle East countries were allocated without any consideration of each indigenous characteristic for sure. For instance, Iraq consists of three different groups: (1) Kurds, (2) Shia Muslims and (3) Sunni Muslims.

It is evident that it is genuinely difficult to overcome those differences achieving peace and prosperity in the Middle East. The United States, in particular, have dealt with the issues in the Middle East after September 11 attacks. The Bush administration proclaimed the Bush Doctrine including unilateralism and the use of preventative war. Washington was desperate to eradicate Al-Qaeda sneaking into Iraq and tried to transplant democracy into Iraq which generated controversial questions whether it was appropriate or not. Democracy was finally exported to Iraq, but it became even harder to grasp peace in Iraq on the consideration that Iraq is constituted with drastic different groups of nationals. The American intervention was literally failed.

Following the Bush administration, proclaimed was the Obama doctrine which was, generally speaking, the emphasis of negotiation and collaboration rather than confrontation and unilateralism. This doctrine also faces questions whether it was successful or not in terms of giving chances to radical Islamic groups to build capabilities to counterattack.

We are curious about the avenue of the Trump doctrine these days. It seemed to me that the Trump administration is presenting not only unilateralism attacking Syria but also non-intervention. Mr Trump is so unpredictable to expect international relationship for following years.

No matter what the method of resolving the crisis in the Middle East is, it is vital to preserve their sovereignty and individuality. The virtue of collaboration and cooperation recognising the differences between countries is of great importance. It could be time-consuming, but it is definitely an appropriate avenue in order to achieve ever-lasting peace and economic prosperity in the Middle East.

https://www.economist.com/…/israel-must-answer-for-the-deat…

USA Withdraws from the Iran Nuclear Deal

[이 주의 이슈: 미국, 이란 핵 합의(JCPOA) 탈퇴]

– 조유림 (국제학전공, 16)

On May 8, US President Donald Trump officially declared the withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement (JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It is only about three years since five countries of the United Nations Security Council, Germany and the European Union (EU) signed an agreement with Iran. President Trump claimed that Iran is still promoting a nuclear weapons program and that the nuclear agreement de facto allowed Iran to possess uranium.

The 2015 deal lifted international sanctions in return for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump said he would reimpose U.S. economic sanctions on Iran to undermine “a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.”
The United States enunciated “we will restart high-intensity economic sanctions against Iran.” With this decision, new transactions with Iran are prohibited, and the US will resume economic sanctions against Iran after having two grace periods. Accordingly, members of Iran parliament burned an American flag and a copy of the Iran deal as a session of parliament began.

Iran’s oil export volume is the third largest among the member countries of OPEC, following Saudi Arabia and Iraq. If economic sanctions are restored, Iran’s oil exports will sharply decrease, and international oil prices will rise. In addition, the rise in oil prices can promote price rise and act as a factor to make US interest rate rise.
Military tension in the Middle East is also rising due to the declaration of withdrawal from the JCPOA of U.S. After the US president announced Iran ‘s nuclear agreement withdrawal, the Israeli army promptly attacked the military base in Syria with missiles. Furthermore, a military conflict occurred between Israel and Syria’s border zone on 10th.

There is a concern that Saudi Arabia, which conflicts with Iran, will try to develop nuclear weapon. Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia stated that “if Iran restarts the nuclear program, we will take all measures for nuclear development.” As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East will increase, the rise in international oil price is expected to continue for the time being.

8일(현지시간) 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 미국의 이란 핵합의(JCPOA·포괄적 공동행동계획) 탈퇴를 공식 선언했다. 유엔 안보리 5개국과 독일, 유럽연합(EU)이 이란과 협정을 맺은 지 3년여 만이다. 트럼프 대통령은 이란이 계속해서 핵무기 프로그램을 추진해왔으며, 핵 합의는 사실상 이란을 우라늄 보유를 계속 늘리도록 허용했을 뿐이라고 주장했다.
미국은 “이란에 대해 강도 높은 경제 제재를 다시 시작할 것”이라고 밝혔다. 이번 결정으로 이란과의 새로운 거래는 금지되었으며, 미국은 총 2회에 걸친 유예기간을 통해 대이란 경제제재를 재개할 것이다. 이에 테헤란 미 대사관 인근에서는 이란 주민들이 성조기를 태우는 등 반미 시위를 벌이고 있다.

현재 이란의 원유수출량은 석유수출국기구(OPEC) 회원국 중에서 사우디아라비아, 이라크에 이어 3번째로 많은 것으로 알려졌다. 대이란 경제 제재가 복원된다면, 이란의 원유 수출량이 급감할 것이며 국제 유가는 상승세를 보일 것으로 전망한다. 또한, 유가 상승은 물가 상승세를 확대하여 미국의 금리 인상 속도가 빨라지는 요인으로 작용할 수 있어 달러 강세를 부추긴다.
한편, 미국의 이란 핵합의 탈퇴 선언으로 중동에서 군사적 긴장이 고조되고 있다. 미국 대통령이 지난 8일 이란 핵합의 탈퇴를 발표한 직후 이스라엘군은 시리아 수도 다마스쿠스 인근 이란의 군사기지를 미사일로 공격했다. 이는 이란의 정예 혁명방위군 소속부대의 무기고와 로켓 발사대를 타깃으로 한 것이었으며 총 9명이 숨졌다. 10일(현지시간)에는 이스라엘과 시리아의 접경지대인 골란고원에서 군사적 충돌이 발생했다. 이스라엘은 이란 정예부대가 미사일 공격을 주도했다고 말했으며, 사상자는 없다고 발표했다.

이번 발표로 이스라엘과 이란이 군사적으로 충돌할 뿐만 아니라, 이란과 대립 중인 사우디아라비아가 핵 개발을 단행할 수 있다는 우려도 나온다. 사우디 외무장관은 “이란이 핵 프로그램을 재가동한다면 우리도 핵 개발을 위해 모든 조치를 취할 것”이라고 언급한 바 있다. 중동의 지정학적 리스크가 커지면서 유가 상승세는 당분간 지속될 것으로 전망한다.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/…/m…/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html

Toronto Van Attack

[이주의 이슈: Toronto Van Attack]

-김지은 (국제학 전공, 16)

On April 23rd, Monday, a rented white van in Toronto have mounted onto the sidewalk and struck numerous people killing 10 pedestrians and injuring 16, 2 of which were South Korean. The suspected driver was 25-year-old Alek Minassian who recently graduated from a computer studies program in North York and is currently living with his family in northern Toronto. When Alek Minassian was apprehended, he was holding an object like a handgun, provoking the officer to shoot him. Police Constable Ken Lam was publicly praised as there were no shots fired at the scene while he arrested the suspect. This attack is said to be the deadliest vehicle-ramming attack in Canadian history.

As 8 of 10 victims Toronto van rampage were women, it is suspected that the purpose of the attack was to express anger towards women. Before the attack, Alek Minassian had posted on Facebook “The Incel Rebellion has already begun! We will overthrow all the Chads and Stacys! All hail the Supreme Gentleman Elliot Roger!”. This post was authenticated by Facebook itself. The term “incel” is short for “involuntary celibate” which refers to young men who would discuss their lack of sexual activity, ultimately blaming women for the problem. It was originally coined in the 1990s in Toronto to refer to women characterized as being a virgin in her 20s. However, it was co-opted by 22-year-old Elliot Rodger from California who killed himself after a mass-shooting killing 6 people. Prior of the attack, he had posted in YouTube describing himself as a virgin who wanted to get revenge from women. “Chads and Stacys” indicates attractive men and women.

According to former classmates, Alek Minassian was socially awkward and was in a special needs program in high school. Nonetheless, he had not shown any signs of violence and was said to be completely harmless. Some classmates were shocked of this incident and did not believe that Alek would be able to even drive given his special needs condition. Indeed, Minassian had some issues with communicating with women and expressed fear that women could hurt him but he did not show any strong ideological views towards them.

Studying computer for seven years in college, Minassian appeared to be skilled in computer software and mobile app development. Yet, in late 2017 he had enlisted in the Canadian Armed forces for approximately two months before requesting voluntary release. A senior military official stated that Minassian was not adapting to military life but did not indicate any red flags or anything that would hint to this incident.

1. What do you think is the core problem that lead Minassian to conduct an attack towards women? (education, social media, mental disability, etc.)

2. How can we prevent these kinds of extremist attacks towards a gender or LGBT?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/…/article-toronto-van-atta…/

https://www.nytimes.com/…/eight-of-10-victims-in-toronto-va…

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php…